Will February the 28th prove to have been the biggest news day of 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffAIGeopoliticsMiddle EastLatin AmericaPolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.1%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 26, 2:40 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
On February the 28th, two things happened: Trump declared the start of strikes on Iran.
- And Open AI announced a contract with the DOW, replacing Anthropic.
- In my view, the combination makes 2/28/26 "the biggest news day of 2026", with the January 3rd capture of Maduro being a close second.
- I will personally judge this based on the significance of the event(s) in question.
- Most events occur over a number of days; but in order to resolve NO, candidate events must have a particular date of occurrence reported on in the major news media.
- As events occur, betters are encouraged to convince me of their significance.
