What are the current odds for Will the US Senate's Filibuster rule be in place as-is on February 20th, 2027??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 82.8% as of October 28, 2026.

Will the US Senate's Filibuster rule be in place as-is on February 20th, 2027?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 82.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Nov 1, 25, 7:56 PM UTCFeb 20, 27, 3:34 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves Yes if the rules of the senate are in their current (November 1st, 2025) position as of February 20th, 2027.

If the nuclear option is used to change or suspend the rule in between now and then, this market can still resolve Yes if the old normal is formally re-asserted before resolution.
This market is concerned with the rule as it applies to general acts of congress, not to previously expanded executive and SCOTUS nominations.
That said, those partial reductions in the rule would be enough for a No resolution had this market covered those time periods.
Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments!
Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for partial carve-outs counting as material changes (resolving No):