Highest Slay the Spire 2 (Ascension 10) win rate on Epoch AI's SpireClimb benchmark on November 30, 2026?
One-OffAI30d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastBelow 35% (GPT-6 Astra's 34.7% still on top) 39.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+14.5 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 26, 5:31 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Epoch AI's SpireClimb benchmark has AI models play Slay the Spire through computer use.
- This market is about the Slay the Spire 2, Ascension 10 variant, scored as the win rate across runs.
- Current state (Epoch data as of Oct 29, 2026): the top score is GPT-6 Astra (max) at 34.7%, followed by GPT-6.1 Sol (max) at 29.3%.
- Only 7 models have been scored, and all of those runs were in late September.
- Several newer models (e.g. GPT-6.1 Terra, Gemini 4 Argon) have not been scored on this variant yet.
- Resolution: the highest mean_score in Epoch AI's spireclimb_sts2_a10.csv, from the benchmark data download (https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip), or the matching table on Epoch's benchmarking hub if the file moves.
