Highest score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Erdős benchmark (68 open Erdős problems) by November 30, 2026?
One-OffAI1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastBelow 5% (no model beats today's 3 of 68) 41.6%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+16.6 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 26, 9:47 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Epoch AI's FrontierMath Erdős benchmark has 68 Erdős problems that were still open as of August 2026, picked by Thomas Bloom (erdosproblems.com).
- A model has to write a complete Lean proof or disproof.
- Leaderboard: https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/frontiermath-erdos
- State on 2026-10-28 (Epoch's downloadable data, frontiermath_erdos.csv in https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip):
- Top score: GPT-6.1 Sol (max) at 4.4% (3 of 68)
- Next: GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5 at 2.9% (2 of 68)