Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Transformer-based architecture 95.4%Leader of 11 outcomes
Transformer-based architecture 95.4%Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 11, 24, 11:53 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2026.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
- I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc. See also: @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9 @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt (this market) @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8
- @/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ @/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o
