Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Over 1T parameters 93.2%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 11, 24, 11:53 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2027.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
- I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc. See also: @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9
- @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8 (this market)
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Over 1T parameters at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028? resolve?
- What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2027.