Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2026-2027 99%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJun 21, 25, 5:30 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.
- The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory.
- Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days.
- FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
- Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community.
- As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.
