In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
17.2 pts (24h)AIOne-Off13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2026-2027 97.6%+17.2ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+17.2 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jun 21, 25, 5:30 AMJan 1, 40, 11:59 PM
Trends
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Rules
We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.
- The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory.
- Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days.
- FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
- Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community.
- As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark??
- Manifold Markets prices 2026-2027 at 98% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark? resolve?
- In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.