PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 72%
No 72%Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$26.4
Liquidity
$17.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
28.0% / 29.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Sep 25, 26, 10:33 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
PolymarketIf Republicans lose the Senate and Alito has not left the Court, will he leave before the new senators are seated?
Manifold MarketsHow many House Republicans will lose reelection in 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
- Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
- If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
- Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions.