PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 99%-0.1pt
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$190
Liquidity
$8.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
0.5% / 1.8%
Spread
1.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 13, 26, 11:17 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill democrats win the senate and lose the house?
Manifold MarketsWhen will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?
KalshiWill Democrats regain a House majority between elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats.
- Ties do not qualify as a majority.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.