PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 94.1%
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5
Liquidity
$7.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 13, 26, 11:17 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 95% | +89pt | $5 | $7.7K | 13 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi65% match · verified | Medium | 94% | +88pt | $5 | $19.4K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Will Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
4.7 pts5mo
94%
-4.7pt6%
62 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$38.9K
24h Vol$5
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S.
- House at that time, excluding vacant seats.
- Ties do not qualify as a majority.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5Jul 817d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S.
- House at that time, excluding vacant seats.
- Ties do not qualify as a majority.