Will Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
4.7 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS Politics5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 94%
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5
Liquidity
$19.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.3% / 8.8%
Spread
2.5 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Feb 11, 26, 3:00 PMJan 8, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 94% | +88pt | $5 | $19.4K | 14 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket65% match · verified | Low | 95% | +89pt | $5 | $580.5 | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
0.5 pts3mo
94.1%
+0.0pt5.9%
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$19.4K
24h Vol$5
POLYMARKETRules
If the Republican Party loses majority control of the U.S.
- House of Representatives after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5Jul 220d of dataJul 28
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If the Republican Party loses majority control of the U.S.
- House of Representatives after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.