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Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 7:17 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jan 1 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1 97.5%Leader of 8 outcomes
Before Jan 1 97.5%Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.9K
Open interest
$25.5K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 20, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:00 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?
KalshiWhen will the AP call control of the US House after the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsRepublicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
PolymarketWill Democrats regain a House majority between elections?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Associated Press
- The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is their primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible on the outlet's platform, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication. If the call is later retracted, the market nonetheless resolves to Yes based on the initial call time. Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify as definitive calls.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 14
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 11
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 6
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 4AM Nov 4
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 1AM Nov 4
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 4
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 11PM Nov 3
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.