When will the AP call control of the US House after the 2026 midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms9d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastElection night: Nov 3, before midnight ET 61%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 26, 11:08 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves to the date (US Eastern Time) on which the Associated Press calls which party has won a majority (218+ seats) of the US House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. **Resolution source:** the AP's race call for House control, as published on apnews.com (or the AP's live results page / AP Politics account).
- If the AP does not publish an explicit majority call, the time at which AP's own seat tally first shows 218 House seats called for one party counts as the call. **Answers (all times Eastern):** - Election night: Nov 3, before midnight - the named outcome - the named outcome - the named outcome - the named outcome Calls made after midnight ET on election night count as the named outcome.
- If the AP has made no call by December 31, 2026, resolves to "the named outcome".
- For reference: the AP called the House on November 16 in 2022 and November 13 in 2024, both years with narrow majorities.
- In 2018 (a Democratic wave), it was called on election night.
- The market closes before the first polls close on November 3.
