KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Nov 4 40%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$73
Low liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?
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ForecastExRules
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Associated Press
- The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner.
- The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is their primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible on the outlet's platform, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication.
- If the call is later retracted, the market nonetheless resolves to Yes based on the initial call time.
- Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify as definitive calls.
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority??
- Kalshi prices Before Nov 4 at 40% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority? resolve?
- When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.