KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Dec 3 · —
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Stored price
Before Dec 3 94.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Before Dec 3 94.5%Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$124
Open interest
$2.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Dec 3Spread
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Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 5, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Dec 3
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who during, the next Congress, will call on the next Senate to eliminate or limit the filibuster? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsWhen will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?
KalshiWhen will the AP call control of the US House after the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election?
ForecastExSenate Majority Leader after 2026 Election? (Polymarket Mirror)
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election?
ForecastExRules
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Associated Press
- The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is their primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible on the outlet's platform, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication. If the call is later retracted, the market nonetheless resolves to Yes based on the initial call time. Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify as definitive calls.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Dec 3
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Dec 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 5
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 14
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 19
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 7
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 5
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 4AM Nov 4
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 1AM Nov 4
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 4
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 11PM Nov 3
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. Senate majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
