Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 98%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 16, 24, 6:47 AM UTCJan 4, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Democrats regain control of the Senate in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRepublicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
PolymarketWhen will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if, at any point during the 1st session of the 119th Congress (noon 1/3/25 to noon 1/3/27), a plurality of sitting members in the US House of Representatives caucus with the Democratic Party, AND the Speaker of the House is a member of the Democratic Party.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt17%
- Gavin Newsom16%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.5%
- Gavin Newsom14.4%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $222.3M
- 24h Vol
- $742.7K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+2.0pt91%
- Republican Party-1.8pt9%
- Total Vol
- $33.9M
- 24h Vol
- $573K
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro+21.1pt58.8%
- Delcy Rodríguez-25.0pt40.2%
- No Head of State+0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Third Term99%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $975.6K
- 24h Vol
- $472.8K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-1.6pt9.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.9M
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections? resolve?
- Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections? is scheduled to resolve on January 4, 2027.
- How is Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, at any point during the 1st session of the 119th Congress (noon 1/3/25 to noon 1/3/27), a plurality of sitting members in the US House of Representatives caucus with the Democratic Party, AND the Speaker of the House is a member of the Democratic Party.