KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 5, 2026, 4:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
28 or more 45%Market line of 9 lines
28 or more 45%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
—
Open interest unknownSpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 6:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Rules
If at least 28 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Associated PressNew York TimesBloomberg NewsCNNNBCABCCBSFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostPoliticoBallotpediaofficial state or local election division websitesthe Clerk of the House of Representatives
- Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election. Losses in 2026 House primaries and runoffs held before this market opened count, including for members who later leave office. Members who ran for a different office, such as the Senate, are not counted. Party is as listed by the Clerk of the House when this market opened. Non-voting delegates and the Resident Commissioner are not counted.
Rules for each outcome
- 16 or more
- If at least 16 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 20 or more
- If at least 20 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 24 or more
- If at least 24 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 28 or more
- If at least 28 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 32 or more
- If at least 32 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 36 or more
- If at least 36 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 40 or more
- If at least 40 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 44 or more
- If at least 44 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 48 or more
- If at least 48 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
