PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 90%
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$22.1
Liquidity
$61.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.5% / 9.8%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-1.4 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jan 30, 26, 11:31 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 90% | — | $22.1 | $61.4K | 17 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets90% match · verified | — | 90% | — | — | — | 36 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?
5mo
90%
10%
Community forecast38 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$22Jul 226d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.