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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGeopolitics6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 14%
Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$1.2K

Liquidity

$76.7K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

13.8% / 14.4%

Spread

4.3%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Jan 30, 26, 11:32 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
  • The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
  • The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.