Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 21, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 90%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 36 days ago
StaleMay 17, 25, 8:46 PMDec 31, 26, 11:11 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes10%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall90% match · verified | Medium | 90% | — | $22.1 | $76.6K | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 90% | — | — | — | 36 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
0.1 pts5mo
90%
10%
71 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$246.2K
24h Vol$22.1
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.