Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.4%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 17, 25, 8:46 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:11 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PredictItWill Alberta join the US?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Canadian province of Alberta holds a referendum in which a majority of voters cast ballots in favour of Alberta's independence from Canada.
- If no such referendum occurs by the specified date, or if a province-wide referendum with at least 33% voter turnout is held prior to the date and declared defeated, the market will resolve to NO.
- The referendum does not have to be legally binding or ultimately result in succession.
- Many similar independence referendums around the world have had questionable legal binding basis.
Prediction Source Comparison
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026? resolve?
- Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Canadian province of Alberta holds a referendum in which a majority of voters cast ballots in favour of Alberta's independence from Canada.
- Where else is Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.