Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

PoliticsOne-Off3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 98%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Jan 18, 23, 2:09 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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(https://manifold.markets/embed/NcyRocks/will-the-gender-recognition-reform)[markets]

Report a data issue with this market

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

PoliticsOne-Off3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 98%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Jan 18, 23, 2:09 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Scottish independence referendum called in 2026?

Kalshi

Will the Greenlandic Parliament pass a resolution by November 15 to schedule a national independence referendum?

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Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?

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Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Manifold Markets

Will Greenland hold an independence referendum in 2026?

PredictIt

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket

Rules

(https://manifold.markets/embed/NcyRocks/will-the-gender-recognition-reform)[markets]

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent??: Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent? resolve?: Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
How is Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: (https://manifold.markets/embed/NcyRocks/will-the-gender-recognition-reform)[markets]

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?

Frequently asked questions

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