KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before 2030 · —
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Stored price
Before 2030 25%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before 2030 25%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$7.9K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before 2030Spread
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Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
May 1, 24, 12:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · Before 2030
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
Manifold MarketsWill Greenland hold an independence referendum in 2026?
PredictItWill the Greenlandic Parliament pass a resolution by November 15 to schedule a national independence referendum?
Manifold MarketsAlberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?
Manifold MarketsWill Wales announce an independence referendum?
KalshiRules
If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:UK Government
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2030
- If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2029
- If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2028
- If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
