KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 79.5%
No 79.5%Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$7
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Sep 13, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next Scottish independence referendum pass?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Scottish independence referendum (indyref2) by 2030?
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PredictItWill the Greenlandic Parliament pass a resolution by November 15 to schedule a national independence referendum?
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Manifold MarketsScottish independence referendum called?
KalshiRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments Confirmation must come from the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a Welsh authority legally empowered to commit to holding the referendum. A binding legal instrument qualifies only if it commits to the poll; merely granting a power to call one does not qualify. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, non-binding Senedd motions, consultations, requests for permission, preparations, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Announcements made before issuance do not qualify.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
