What are the current odds for Will there be a Scottish independence referendum (indyref2) by 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 83.9% as of October 23, 2026.

Will there be a Scottish independence referendum (indyref2) by 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 83.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 54 minutes ago

Lagging

Sep 10, 23, 4:26 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Scotland's independence referendum in 2014 was defeated by a vote 55% for remaining in the United Kingdom.

Responding to the Brexit referendum in 2016, the Scottish National Party (SNP) began pursuing a second referendum, efforts towards which continue even to the time of writing this question.
In 2022 the SNP was rebuffed by the Supreme Court which ruled that the Scottish government cannot hold a referendum on independence without the consent of the British government.
Earlier in 2022, the SNP's previous leader, Nicola Sturgeon, said that the next Scottish election could be treated as a de facto referendum on independence.
For the purposes of this question, only a formal referendum counts.