Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 52%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 30, 26, 1:19 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Prior to the official conclusion of any Alberta independence referendum, will there be verified evidence that the U.S. federal government under President Donald Trump took intentional actions to influence the referendum’s outcome, legitimacy, or conduct.
- For this question, “influence” means intentional actions by U.S. federal officials or their agents that go beyond routine diplomatic contact and are reasonably expected to affect:
- • voter preferences or turnout • the perceived legitimacy or fairness of the referendum • the timing, conduct, or administration of the referendum • the political or economic context in Alberta explicitly in relation to referendum outcomes
- Resolution criteria
- The question resolves YES if, before the referendum concludes, one or more of the following is established:
- A formal finding or public conclusion by a credible Canadian authority (e.g. Government of Canada, Elections Canada, RCMP, CSIS, or a provincial inquiry) that U.S. federal officials acted to influence the referendum.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum? resolve?
- Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Prior to the official conclusion of any Alberta independence referendum, will there be verified evidence that the U.S. federal government under President Donald Trump took intentional actions to influence the referendum’s outcome, legitimacy, or conduct.