Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 16 minutes ago
Jan 30, 26, 1:19 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Prior to the official conclusion of any Alberta independence referendum, will there be verified evidence that the U.S. federal government under President Donald Trump took intentional actions to influence the referendum’s outcome, legitimacy, or conduct.
- For this question, “influence” means intentional actions by U.S. federal officials or their agents that go beyond routine diplomatic contact and are reasonably expected to affect:
- • voter preferences or turnout • the perceived legitimacy or fairness of the referendum • the timing, conduct, or administration of the referendum • the political or economic context in Alberta explicitly in relation to referendum outcomes
- Resolution criteria
- The question resolves YES if, before the referendum concludes, one or more of the following is established:
- A formal finding or public conclusion by a credible Canadian authority (e.g. Government of Canada, Elections Canada, RCMP, CSIS, or a provincial inquiry) that U.S. federal officials acted to influence the referendum.
