KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$23.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 4.9%
Spread
1.9 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsAlberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Greenland hold an independence referendum in 2026?
PredictItRules
If Greenland has held an independence referendum after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 whose outcome is a majority of voters vote for independence, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A referendum to join another country will also be considered as an independence referendum for this purpose.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 5%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 5% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 95% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? resolve?
- Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Greenland has held an independence referendum after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 whose outcome is a majority of voters vote for independence, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.