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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

YearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsEurope6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 4%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$228

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

3.0% / 4.0%

Spread

33.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jan 6, 26, 10:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes4%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

6mo
Yes
Yes
5%
No
No
95%
49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$25.1K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If Greenland has held an independence referendum after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 whose outcome is a majority of voters vote for independence, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A referendum to join another country will also be considered as an independence referendum for this purpose.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Metaculus

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Rules

If Greenland has held an independence referendum after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 whose outcome is a majority of voters vote for independence, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A referendum to join another country will also be considered as an independence referendum for this purpose.