Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
0.1 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsEuropeUS Politics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%-0.1pt
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$203.1
Liquidity
$16.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.2% / 4.4%
Spread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
8
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 10:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PredictItRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 5%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 5% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread