PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 5%
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.7
Liquidity
$15.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.1% / 5.2%
Spread
2.0%
Tight spread7d Change
-0.1%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 10:58 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Also available on Kalshi
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
6mo
4%
96%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$550.8
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.