Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
0.1 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsEuropeUS Politics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 95%
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.8
Liquidity
$13.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.2% / 5.6%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 10:57 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 95% | +90pt | $4.8 | $13.7K | 6 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi87% match · auto | Low | 95% | +90pt | $0 | $23.8K | 26 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
5mo
95%
5%
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$56.5K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5Jul 322d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.