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Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 10:03 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2028 55%
Before Jan 1, 2028 55%Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$8.7K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingJan 27, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Associated PressReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsBBC NewsFinancial TimesThe GuardianPoliticoCNNFox NewsABC NewsCBS NewsNBC NewsAl Jazeera EnglishDeutsche WelleFrance 24 EnglishNHK World-JapanChannel NewsAsiaThe South China Morning PostThe Times of IndiaThe Globe and MailABC News Australia
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.