KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2028 54%
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$8.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 16.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 27, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Associated PressReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsBBC NewsFinancial TimesThe GuardianPoliticoCNNFox NewsABC NewsCBS NewsNBC NewsAl Jazeera EnglishDeutsche WelleFrance 24 EnglishNHK World-JapanChannel NewsAsiaThe South China Morning PostThe Times of IndiaThe Globe and Mail
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies.
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify.
- Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify.
- Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2028 at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? resolve?
- Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.