PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 98%+0.4pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$43.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.1% / 2.5%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
11
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Feb 6, 26, 10:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Baron Trump join the US army in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
PolymarketAlberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alberta vote to secede from Canada?
KalshiWill any portion of Alberta become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
- An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur.
- Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Alberta join the US??
- Polymarket prices No at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Alberta join the US? resolve?
- Will Alberta join the US? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Alberta join the US? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.