How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
3.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms29d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
47–49 and 193–207 30%+3.0ptLeader of 13 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
47–49 and 193–207 30%+3.0ptMarket quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$210.4
Liquidity
$267K
High liquidityComments
3
7d Change
-0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 5:30 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsRules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
- The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
- The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress.
- Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.