How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 18 50%Market line of 13 lines
At least 18 50%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$21.5K
Medium open interestSpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsHow many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
KalshiRules
If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York TimesThe Associated PressDecision Desk HQCNNFox NewsNBC NewsCBS NewsABC News
- A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Republican designation who caucuses with Republicans is not counted, and one elected as a Republican candidate who later leaves remains counted. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 14
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 15
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 16
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 17
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 18
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 19
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 19 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 20
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 20 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 21
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 21 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 22
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 22 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 23
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 23 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 25
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 25 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 24
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 24 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 26
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Republican Party candidates is at least 26 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.