How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms30dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast11 79.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.3 pts
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Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 18, 25, 3:29 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
As of question writing, these are the 11 states that are listed as "safe" or "solid" Republican seats on Wikipedia by all four ratings columns.
- How many of them will the Republicans actually win?
- Based on a consensus of credible reporting, or certified results if consensus reporting is not available prior to that.
- Counting independent senators who have announced they intend to caucus with the Republicans.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-safe-senate-seats-will-the