Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
InflationOne-OffEquitiesPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms4d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 26, 3:47 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" if the S&P 500 index closes at least 20% lower than its value on the day of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections within 30 calendar days following the election date.
- If the S&P 500 does not decline by at least 20% within this 30-day window, the market will resolve "No."
- The closing price of the S&P 500 on the day of the election and the subsequent daily closing prices will be verified using official data from S&P Dow Jones Indices or a reliable financial reporting source such as Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance.
- A "crash" is defined here as a sudden, rapid, double-digit decline in the index value, specifically reaching or exceeding a 20% drop from the election-day closing price at any point within the specified timeframe.
- A stock market crash is generally characterized by a sudden, dramatic, and widespread decline in stock prices, often driven by panic selling and significant loss of market value.