Will Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms20d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Oct 7, 26, 6:48 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiHow many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
PolymarketHow many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the Republican Party wins and/or retains a majority of seats in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate following the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.
- This market will resolve to NO if the Democratic Party wins a majority of seats in either the House of Representatives, the Senate, or both.
- Specific Resolution Rules:
- U.S. House of Representatives: A party is deemed to control the House if they win at least 218 of the 435 voting seats.
- U.S. Senate: A party is deemed to control the Senate if they secure at least 51 seats, or 50 seats if they hold the tie-breaking vote of the Vice President (the Republican Vice President holds the tie-breaker for the upcoming 120th Congress).