Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 14, 2026, 5:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast
Vacant Senate seats at start of term 25.9%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 days ago
StaleJul 9, 25, 11:03 PMJan 4, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Vacant Senate seats at start of term26%
Volume trend
$61Jul 103d of dataJul 14
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This is intended to capture whether any of the weird edge cases surround the election and seating of the next Congress come to pass, especially focused on things that might cause other markets to resolve in unexpected or apparently contradictory ways.
- These scenarios cover Congressional elections only; State or local elections are not included.
- Details where they might be needed:
- The start of the term is Noon on Jan 3rd, 2027.
- The first day is the actual first day -- Jan 3rd, or later if so decided by law.
- Major news organizations: AP, CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC.