Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 3:23 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastMarket chaos 69.2%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 9, 25, 11:03 PM UTCJan 4, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
2026 Election Weirdness Index
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?
Manifold MarketsWill a Republican House or Senate Candidate say Donald Trump should run for a third term before Midterms Election Day?
Manifold MarketsWhat will really exactly happen in the 2026 midterms election?
Manifold Markets8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsHow will the Nebraska 2026 Senate winner caucus?
Manifold MarketsRules
This is intended to capture whether any of the weird edge cases surround the election and seating of the next Congress come to pass, especially focused on things that might cause other markets to resolve in unexpected or apparently contradictory ways.
- These scenarios cover Congressional elections only; State or local elections are not included.
- Details where they might be needed:
- The start of the term is Noon on Jan 3rd, 2027.
- The first day is the actual first day -- Jan 3rd, or later if so decided by law.
- Major news organizations: AP, CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC.
