PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Dem sweep; China not #1 · —
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Stored reference
Dem sweep; China not #1 62%Leader of 4 outcomes
Dem sweep; China not #1 62%Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$56.8
Liquidity
$52.6K
High liquidityOpen interest
$56.8
Bid / Ask
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Dem sweep; China not #1Spread
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Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 2, 26, 1:07 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Dem sweep; China not #1
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether a Chinese company has the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard by the end of 2027.
- Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers.
- Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers.
- Each option then names the result of the second component ("China #1 AI" or "China not #1"), as defined below.
- The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No".
- Chinese AI model: This component is "China #1 AI" if a Chinese company owns the model ranked first on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the leaderboard is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
