Current community forecast
No 75.1%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 43 minutes ago
Jun 30, 26, 10:53 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, a large language model developed by a Chinese-headquartered organization achieves a strictly higher Elo rating than the highest-rated model developed by a US-headquartered organization on the official LMArena Overall Text Leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Primary Source of Truth: The Overall Text Arena Leaderboard hosted by LMArena (formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena) at lmarena.ai or its official Hugging Face Space.
- Corporate Headquarter Classification:
- Chinese-headquartered developers include, but are not limited to: DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), ByteDance (Doubao), Tencent (Hunyuan), Baidu (Ernie), Zhipu AI (GLM), 01.AI (Yi), and Moonshot AI (Kimi).