Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffSportsUS PoliticsChessMiddle East3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 69.6%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 25, 2:41 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext US nuclear test occurs on US soil?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States conducts a nuclear weapons test before January 1, 2030.
- A nuclear test is defined as any explosive nuclear detonation, whether underground, underwater, or in the atmosphere.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Energy, Department of Defense, or credible international monitoring sources such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).
- The market resolves NO if no such test occurs by the deadline.
- The last underground nuclear test occurred on September 23, 1992.
