Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffSportsUS PoliticsChessMiddle East3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.6%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 25, 2:41 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States conducts a nuclear weapons test before January 1, 2030.
- A nuclear test is defined as any explosive nuclear detonation, whether underground, underwater, or in the atmosphere.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Energy, Department of Defense, or credible international monitoring sources such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).
- The market resolves NO if no such test occurs by the deadline.
- The last underground nuclear test occurred on September 23, 1992.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030? resolve?
- Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria