Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.2%
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43
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 23, 10:19 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
I ( @EvanDaniel ) am taking over this market from an inactive creator.
- It's poorly defined, I'll do my best with it.
- Nuclear weapon test: a nuclear weapon includes a nuclear explosion, not just a reactor.
- It is something where the majority of the energy release comes from fission or fusion reactions, not chemical.
- In other words, atom bombs or hydrogen bombs, but not nuclear-propelled aircraft, ships, cruise missiles, etc. and not dirty bombs. "Test" would include failed tests, so in this case it's whether that was the (apparent) intended result; a fizzle or other failure would count as a test.
- For now the boundaries of the archipelago will be "I know it when I see it"; If someone has a proposal for how to handle stuff in the ocean near the archipelago please post it.