Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.1%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 18, 26, 4:58 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US conduct a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.
- Doesn't have to occur on US soil, as long as it is the US conducting the test.
- A US test conducted in conjunction with another nation (like France or the UK) would qualify, as long as it's clear that the US is an equal partner in these tests.
- By tests, we're talking actual nuclear tests, the kinds we made treaties about, not the kind of monitoring that the US does regularly, even if Trump, say, calls that a "nuclear test".
- Very strong OSINT arguments (radioactivity monitoring, seismology, etc) such that a reasonable Manifolder would conclude it is highly likely that the US conducted a nuclear test based on the evidence would qualify, even if the mainstream press phrases things ambiguously like "The US may or may not have conducted a nuclear test" or similar.
- I will not bet on this market to remain as objective as possible.
