Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.1%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 26, 4:58 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?
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Manifold MarketsIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketRussia nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.
- Doesn't have to occur on US soil, as long as it is the US conducting the test.
- A US test conducted in conjunction with another nation (like France or the UK) would qualify, as long as it's clear that the US is an equal partner in these tests.
- By tests, we're talking actual nuclear tests, the kinds we made treaties about, not the kind of monitoring that the US does regularly, even if Trump, say, calls that a "nuclear test".
- Very strong OSINT arguments (radioactivity monitoring, seismology, etc) such that a reasonable Manifolder would conclude it is highly likely that the US conducted a nuclear test based on the evidence would qualify, even if the mainstream press phrases things ambiguously like "The US may or may not have conducted a nuclear test" or similar.
- I will not bet on this market to remain as objective as possible.
Open markets
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
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- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
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+4 more outcomes
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- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? resolve?
- Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.