PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%+0.6pt
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.1K
Liquidity
$45.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.3% / 4.5%
Spread
1.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:43 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Russia nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketU.S. nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketWill the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026?
FutuurRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
- Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
- Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran.
- For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran nuclear test before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Iran nuclear test before 2027? resolve?
- Iran nuclear test before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Iran nuclear test before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET.