Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 1:44 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastExplicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) 92.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 4, 26, 6:36 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran nuclear deal [Kalshi] resolves the same as US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill China intervene and offer Iran nuclear power plants, ending the war, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsRules
Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?
- Independent.
- Each answer resolves YES/NO on its own. “At least once” means any single qualifying occurrence in the window triggers YES.
- Only publicly observable official statements/actions and authoritative technical bodies/monitoring (or reporting that clearly cites them) count.
- Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran)
- Resolves YES if an official U.S. or Iranian government statement uses explicit nuclear wording (e.g., “nuclear,” “atomic,” “nuclear weapons,” “nuclear forces”) and also names the other party (“Iran” or “United States/U.S./America”) in the same statement.