US-Iran nuclear deal [Kalshi] resolves the same as US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal [Polymarket]
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Jul 13, 26, 8:49 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
LimitlessUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026?
FutuurWill GTA6 release on PC on the same day as it releases on Console?
Manifold MarketsRules
Polymarket and Kalshi have a tendency to resolve differently and controversially.
- Recently Polymarket resolved Yes to a permanent peace deal with the Iran and US, while Kalshi did not.
- Resolves yes, if the following markets resolve Yes more or less to the same news:
- https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27?op_market_ticker=KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG&op_order_side=no&op_side=BUY&op_order_type=limit
- https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412