PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31, · —
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Stored reference
December 31, 5%Leader of 6 outcomes
December 31, 5%Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.7K
Liquidity
$18.5K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$9K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31,Spread
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Comments
24
7d Change
+0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 6:16 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
December 31Lost
June 30,Lost
March 31,Lost
November 30Lost
September 30,Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31,
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketRussia nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketWill the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext US nuclear test occurs on US soil?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
- Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
- Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US.
- For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
