Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.1%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 26, 4:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, the United States conducts ground military operations inside mainland Iran.
- “Mainland Iran” excludes offshore islands such as Kharg Island.
- For this market to resolve YES, all of the following must occur:
- At least 100 uniformed members of the United States Armed Forces are physically present on land inside Iranian sovereign territory.
- These personnel are participating in military ground operations (e.g., raids, combat operations, seizures of facilities, or other military activity conducted on the ground).
- The following do not qualify:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027? resolve?
- Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, the United States conducts ground military operations inside mainland Iran.