Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year??

Manifold Markets prices No strikes, regime stays at 94.8% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year? resolve?

Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to these markets:

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 24+0.3pt100%
• October 28+2.0pt97%
• October 31+7.0pt93%

+17 more outcomes

Total Vol

$27.4M

24h Vol

$544K

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 24+0.1pt100%
• October 27+1.5pt98%
• October 31+4.0pt94%

+28 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31+2.0pt61%
• December 31+2.2pt37%
• November 30+1.5pt23%

+21 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by which date?

• November 30-8.5pt49%
• October 31-12.0pt14%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$419.8K

24h Vol

$145.3K

POLYMARKET

Will Russia target Kyiv on?

• October 28+2.4pt94%
• October 3094%
• October 29+4.5pt85%

+28 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

NATO x Russia military clash by which date?

• December 31-3.0pt14%
• November 30-2.0pt8%
• November 15-2.0pt5%

+5 more outcomes

• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
• Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
• Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?