Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.4%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 28, 26, 6:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new wave of public military mobilization is conducted in Russia before the end of 2026, and to "No" otherwise.
- The previous wave of partial mobilization was announced by President Vladimir Putin on September 21, 2022, and resulted in approximately 300,000 reservists being called up.
- That mobilization was officially declared complete by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on October 28, 2022, with no further measures planned at that time.
- For the purposes of this market, a "new wave of public military mobilization" means an official, publicly announced mobilization decree by the Russian government ordering the compulsory call-up of military reservists or conscripts beyond routine annual conscription cycles.
- Rumors, covert preparations, legislative changes, or unofficial statements about potential mobilization do not count as resolution events.
- Resolution sources: This market will be resolved based on official reports from BBC (bbc.com) or CNN (cnn.com) confirming that a new wave of public mobilization has been formally announced and is being carried out in Russia.
