Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.4%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 28, 26, 6:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new wave of public military mobilization is conducted in Russia before the end of 2026, and to "No" otherwise.
- The previous wave of partial mobilization was announced by President Vladimir Putin on September 21, 2022, and resulted in approximately 300,000 reservists being called up.
- That mobilization was officially declared complete by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on October 28, 2022, with no further measures planned at that time.
- For the purposes of this market, a "new wave of public military mobilization" means an official, publicly announced mobilization decree by the Russian government ordering the compulsory call-up of military reservists or conscripts beyond routine annual conscription cycles.
- Rumors, covert preparations, legislative changes, or unofficial statements about potential mobilization do not count as resolution events.
- Resolution sources: This market will be resolved based on official reports from BBC (bbc.com) or CNN (cnn.com) confirming that a new wave of public mobilization has been formally announced and is being carried out in Russia.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new wave of public military mobilization is conducted in Russia before the end of 2026, and to "No" otherwise.