Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionMiddle EastGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.5%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 5:26 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
This market will only resolve no once:
- the media consensus is that the Iran war is over (not just a ceasefire), OR
- a temporary ceasefire has gone on for 365 contiguous days.
- Otherwise, it will resolve yes when the next Democratic party nominee for President is inaugurated and there is not an active ceasefire.
- If a ceasefire is ongoing at the time of inauguration, this market will not resolve until either the ceasefire ends or it reaches 365 contiguous days (inclusive of days prior to inauguration).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated? resolve?
- Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will only resolve no once: