Will at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated in 2029 was legitimately elected?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.2%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 10:47 PM UTCFeb 28, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
At the end of 2024, 85% of US adult citizens believed Donald Trump legitimately won the 2024 US presidential election, according to YouGov, while 15% did not.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated on 20 January 2029 legitimately won the 2028 US presidential election.
- This market will resolve NO if more than 10% of US adults believe the president inaugurated on 20 January 2029 did not legitimately win the 2028 US presidential election.
- Clarifications
- This market will resolve according to the most recently published YouGov poll to ask this question (or one with a substantially similar meaning) at the end of February 2029.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated in 2029 was legitimately elected??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated in 2029 was legitimately elected? resolve?
- Will at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated in 2029 was legitimately elected? is scheduled to resolve on February 28, 2029.
- How is Will at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated in 2029 was legitimately elected? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At the end of 2024, 85% of US adult citizens believed Donald Trump legitimately won the 2024 US presidential election, according to YouGov, while 15% did not.