Will polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?
One-OffUS Politics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastThere will be enough new polling, and it will show that a majority of Americans still believe that Oswald did not act alone. 64.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
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13
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 22 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 23, 11:12 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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Historically, the majority of Americans believe that Oswald did not act alone in assassinating JFK.
- The best recent polling on this question I can find is this 538 article from 2017: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-one-thing-in-politics-most-americans-believe-in-jfk-conspiracies/
- [link preview]In this article, 538 commissioned an online poll of 5000 Americans and found that 61% believed that "others were involved" and 33% believed that he "acted alone".
- The article also talks about more traditional polling before 2017 showing similar results.
- Unfortunately, I have not been able to find any polling of this question since 2017.
- This question is about whether anyone will do more large scale polling on this issue before 2030, and if so whether that polling will show that a majority of americans now believe Oswald acted alone.
