Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / UkraineTechBusiness & Corporate2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78.5%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 4, 26, 3:17 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:13 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Swift Centre has a better Brier score than Polymarket, across their five forecasts.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Context: Swift Centre claims that Polymarket is not the ultimate source of truth and that their forecasters can beat Polymarket.
- https://www.swiftcentre.org/publicforecasts/yk77y2zct07ttcl00lmuk2x2s629fh
- Here were their five forecasts:
- 1) The Swift Centre forecasters saw a ~4% chance of the United States acquiring Greenland in 2026, distinctly lower than the 12% that was on the relevant Polymarket question.