Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?
CommoditiesOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChinaTech3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.8%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 26, 4:06 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States formally recognizes the People's Republic of China's sovereignty over Taiwan and terminates its unofficial relations with Taiwan, including ending military support and defense cooperation under the Taiwan Relations Act.
- This would constitute a formal diplomatic concession of Taiwan to the PRC.
- This market also resolves YES if Taiwan becomes formally incorporated into the PRC under an arrangement analogous to Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" framework — including scenarios where Taiwan retains nominal autonomy, a separate economic zone, or continued semiconductor exports to the US — provided that the US formally accepts PRC sovereignty over Taiwan and ends its defense commitments.
- The market resolves NO if the US maintains any form of unofficial military relations with Taiwan, continues arms sales, or preserves defense cooperation frameworks in opposition to China through 2029.
- The market also resolves NO if Taiwan is acquired by the PRC through a military invasion.
