Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 60.1%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 25, 4:51 PM UTCSep 24, 27, 4:25 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Polymarket and Kalshi are currently hotly competing for prediction market dominance, and are about the same size.
- This resolves once that is no longer the case, and one is dramatically more successful than the other.
- [image]I don't want to define a single metric since that can be goodharted, but I'm looking for roughly a 90/10 split or better of general prediction market mindspace and finance-space.
- (Between them only.
- The emergence of a third competitor doesn't factor in.)
- For comparison I would say that Kalshi seems on vibes to be pretty close to beating PredictIt, or possibly has already.